Recently, the United States broke news that it will increase taxes on Chinese goods, especially for cross-border e-commerce platforms, and some tariff policies will take effect on September 27.

Us raises tariffs on Chinese imports

On September 13, the United States announced an increase in import tariffs on Chinese products, and pointed out that Chinese e-commerce platforms have used exemption policies to affect the US market, weakening local industries, and leading to a large number of low-priced products such as textiles and clothing imported into the US market duty-free.

Section 301 tariffs currently cover about 40 percent of U.S. imports, including 70 percent of textile and apparel imports from China. The US intends to remove the minimum exemption qualification for e-commerce platforms to evade tariffs. This move will weaken the competitiveness of China's cross-border e-commerce and affect the development of the "four small dragons" represented by SHEIN, AliExpress, Temu and TikTok Shop.

The circumstances of the tax increase outweigh the content

China's textile industry chain has significant advantages, especially the price advantage is difficult to be replaced.

In the first half of the year, the market share of the United States imported fabrics, textile products and chemical fiber products from China was 17.8%, 37.3% and 29.8%, respectively, an increase of 1.8, 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year, ranking first. China's clothing accounted for 19.1% of the import market, the same as the same period last year.

Therefore, the tax increase may increase the burden on US consumers and exacerbate inflation.

A rate cut could trigger a chain reaction

In addition to tariffs, the dollar's upcoming rate-cutting cycle could also trigger a ripple effect.

Historical experience shows that after the interest rate cut cycle is prone to financial crisis, the US dollar first shrinks liquidity by raising interest rates, so that the valuation of core assets in various countries falls sharply, and then the US dollar releases liquidity by cutting interest rates, so that it can buy high-quality assets at cheap prices around the world. The market is expected that the Federal Reserve will gradually enter the interest rate cut cycle soon, and the probability of the first round of interest rate cuts of 25 basis points is higher, or it will bring some turbulence to the global market.

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