The United States election entered the final stage, in a called "538" American index comprehensive polling website, Trump in the seven swing states are in different degrees of leading position, showing that his chances of winning the election increased significantly, and from October 26 local time, Trump's support rate for two consecutive days ahead of Harris 0.1 percentage points.

According to the analysis of well-known foreign industry institutions, if Trump wins the US election, the impact on China's textile and clothing exports may be as follows:

If Trump wins the US election, additional tariffs of up to 60 per cent could be imposed on Chinese textile and apparel products, which would have a profound impact on global supply chains. China, which supplies about 33 per cent of US clothing imports, dominates the textile manufacturing industry, and higher tariffs would lead to price increases, rapid shifts in sourcing and knock-on effects on US, UK and EU clothing markets.

In particular, the policy could significantly increase costs for American consumers, disrupt established trade flows, and risk flooding the UK and EU with low-cost Chinese products.

Impact on U.S. clothing sourcing: U.S. consumers will face significant increases in clothing prices. Since Chinese textile and apparel products have a significant share of the US market, a high tariff of 60 percent will force US importers to raise prices, thereby passing the cost on to consumers. This has led to a 10-25% increase in retail prices for denim, sportswear and basic synthetic products that are heavily dependent on Chinese imports.

The Trade Partnership estimated that previous tariffs on Chinese goods had reduced U.S. spending on Chinese apparel by $4 billion due to higher retail prices, a figure that would rise significantly if 60 percent tariffs were imposed.

Supply chain shift: High tariffs will prompt U.S. companies to accelerate diversification away from China's manufacturing centers and find alternative suppliers and production bases in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Latin America.

Technological progress in China's manufacturing industry

Accelerated automation: Faced with high tariffs, Chinese manufacturers are likely to accelerate the push towards automation and AI-driven manufacturing to improve efficiency and reduce costs in response to high tariffs in the US market. According to the China National Textile and Garment Association (CNTAC), China has been investing in automation, aiming to automate nearly 40 percent of its textile production lines by 2025. In the long run, these efficiencies could make China a leader in advanced, efficient textile manufacturing, offsetting some of the impact of the loss of market share in the United States.

Alternative export markets: China is likely to redirect its excess apparel exports to other major markets, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, which could increase competition in these regions.

Retaliatory tariffs: China may impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, which could further escalate trade tensions, and the global apparel supply chain could be disrupted due to barriers in the U.S. market, affecting the global supply of raw materials, especially the export of U.S. cotton, especially the impact on U.S. cotton exports to China. U.S. cotton exports to China in 2022 were valued at $7.2 billion. China's countertariffs on U.S. cotton would raise costs for global manufacturers that rely on cotton, affecting production costs and timelines.

Competitive pressure on suppliers

Bangladesh, Turkey and Pakistan

Countries that supply low-cost clothing to the EU, such as Bangladesh, Turkey and Pakistan, will face increasing competition. China's production scale and cost efficiency will intensify competition in these regions, potentially displacing traditional suppliers.

Therefore, the new tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods will have a significant impact on the global apparel trade, not only affecting prices and supply chains, but also potentially changing the global trade pattern and policy direction.

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